Crime Only half of murders are solved in the US - against 80 to 95% in other Western countries

[Maciamo]

I was wondering how various countries compared in their murder clearance rates, so I had to look at the data and found something rather concerning. In the US the percentage of homicides that have been solved has been steadily declining since the 1960s. This graph shows that it declined from 91% in 1965 to 54% in 2020. In 2022 it stood at 52%. So half of all murders now go unsolved. It is rather counterintuitive there's new technologies should considerably improve the clearance rate. There are now CCTV cameras everywhere. DNA tests have never been so cheap and so easy to conduct. People's locations can be traced easily through smartphones. And yet the police is catching less and less murderers.

I checked if this trend was also happening in other countries but it appears to be a specifically American phenomenon. For example the murder solving rate in Germany has been hovering between 91% and 95% between 2011 and 2023.

This academic paper shows a homicide clearance rate of 96% to 99% in Finland, 88% to 100% in Switzerland, 73% to 89% in Sweden, and 70% to 80% in the Netherlands. But percentages oscillate from year to year with no particular upward or downward trend.

According to ChatGPT:

In Italy the situation has remained relatively stable with a clearance rate ranging between 75% and 85% of the last 40 years.

The clearance rate in Spain has been even more stable staying always between 85 and 90% since the 1980s.

In Belgium 75% to 80% of murders were solved in the 1980s and 90s, but the rate improved to 80 to 85% from the early 2000s to the present day. It's not a big change but the situation has improved unlike in the US.

In France the murder clearance rate hovered around 80 to 85% in the 1990s, then went up to 85 to 90% in the early 2000s, but apparently decreased in the last few years (2020s) to 70 to 75%, although it may be too early to tell.

What is interesting is that the homicide clearance rate has been decreasing in several English speaking countries over the last 30 years, although much less than in the US. In the United Kingdom it used to be about 90% in the 1990s, then fell to 85 to 90% in the early 2000s, 80 to 85% in the mid 2000s, and is now slightly under 80%. It says that budget cuts in policing may be to blame.

The situation is very similar in Australia where 85 to 90% of the cases were solved from the 1980s to early 2000s, then falling slightly to 80 to 85% in the 2010s and eventually 75 to 80% in the 2020s.

The police in Canada was able to solve 80 to 85% of murders from the 1980s to the early 2000s. However since 2015 the rate has suddenly dropped to 70 to 75%.

 

[Twilight]

Here is what Grok-2 is saying
Is there anything that Europe is doing differently to tackle the ACAB movement v. Police issue?
This might be a good learning experience

The downward trend in the percentage of solved murders in the United States from 1960 to 2022 can be attributed to several factors:

1. **Increase in Total Murders**: The total number of murders has increased over the years, which can strain law enforcement resources and reduce the clearance rate. More cases mean more work for detectives, potentially leading to lower solve rates.

2. **Changes in Crime Patterns**: The nature and patterns of crime have evolved. For instance, the rise in gang-related and drug-related homicides, which are often harder to solve due to lack of cooperation from witnesses, has contributed to lower clearance rates.

3. **Community-Police Relations**: Strained relations between police and certain communities can lead to less cooperation from witnesses, making it harder to solve cases. This is particularly relevant in areas with high crime rates.

4. **Resource Allocation**: Budget constraints and shifts in law enforcement priorities can impact the resources available for homicide investigations. Departments may be understaffed or underfunded, affecting their ability to solve cases.

5. **Technological Advances and Challenges**: While technology has improved forensic capabilities, it has also introduced new challenges. Criminals have become more sophisticated in avoiding detection, and the sheer volume of digital evidence can be overwhelming for investigators.

6. **Legal and Procedural Changes**: Changes in laws and procedures, such as stricter rules on evidence and interrogations, can make it more difficult to obtain convictions, thereby affecting clearance rates.

7. **Urbanization and Anonymity**: Increased urbanization can lead to greater anonymity for criminals, making it harder for police to gather information from the community.

These factors collectively contribute to the downward trend in the percentage of solved murders over the past several decades. Addressing this issue would require a multifaceted approach, including improving community-police relations, allocating more resources to law enforcement, and leveraging technology more effectively.

 

[mirimax]

Thank you very much for this conclusive compilation! The figures really do speak for themselves - the continuing decline in the clearance rate in the USA is particularly alarming. While one would expect technological advances such as DNA analysis, smartphone tracking and surveillance cameras to make solving crimes easier, the exact opposite seems to be happening in the US.


The international comparisons clearly show that this is not a global trend, but a specifically American problem. I also find it interesting that many European countries have been able to keep their high crime detection rates relatively constant over the decades. This suggests that institutional and social factors - such as trust in the police, the quality of investigative work or state resources - play a greater role than technology alone.


What Grok-2 writes is also an important point: the police-public relationship is severely strained in many parts of the US. Without witnesses willing to testify, even the best tools are of little use. The structural problems mentioned, such as underfunding and the increasing complexity of cases, also seem to have a greater impact here than in other countries.


Perhaps we could actually learn more from the models in Europe - for example, in terms of long-term trust, training, community policing and prioritizing violent crimes. In any case, the comparison makes

 

[Twilight]

Thank you very much for this conclusive compilation! The figures really do speak for themselves - the continuing decline in the clearance rate in the USA is particularly alarming. While one would expect technological advances such as DNA analysis, smartphone tracking and surveillance cameras to make solving crimes easier, the exact opposite seems to be happening in the US.


The international comparisons clearly show that this is not a global trend, but a specifically American problem. I also find it interesting that many European countries have been able to keep their high crime detection rates relatively constant over the decades. This suggests that institutional and social factors - such as trust in the police, the quality of investigative work or state resources - play a greater role than technology alone.


What Grok-2 writes is also an important point: the police-public relationship is severely strained in many parts of the US. Without witnesses willing to testify, even the best tools are of little use. The structural problems mentioned, such as underfunding and the increasing complexity of cases, also seem to have a greater impact here than in other countries.


Perhaps we could actually learn more from the models in Europe - for example, in terms of long-term trust, training, community policing and prioritizing violent crimes. In any case, the comparison makes

Thanks, since 1981 the Cops have an organization called the LETR (Law Enforcement Torch Run) and their mission is to raise money for Special Olympics.
Almost all of my interactions with the Cops have been friendly and positive.
Almost is because I had a drug black market dealer for a neighbor in Elementary School; my roof was even used as a shooting blind. It was kind of humorous when one of the cops gave Dad a gun to him mistaking him as a cop; Dad never lets that one down to this day.

When this “culture war” as one Podcaster puts it started, it was an awkward moment interacting with now estranged high-school classmates.

 

[bigsnake49]

I think the reason that the clearance rate is so low in the US is that a lot of these murders are drug related. Drug dealers and gangs do not go to the police to solve the murder of one of their own. Nor do they help the police to solve it. They take matters in their own hands. The other reason is that police do not place a high priority on drug dealer on drug dealer murders.
I wonder how Sweden's clearance rate has faired. They have a developing drug problem and the accompanying murders.