Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

[firetown]

...and apparently the architect of the talks would be China.

How do we know that?

 

[bicicleur 2]

How do we know that?

we don't, but China is sitting on the side lines and observes the whole spectacle with lots of attention

 

[bicicleur 2]

Of course they did. Were they just waiting for someone else to go first on something they decided on long before?

maybe you know the answer
you seem to know more than me

 

[firetown]

maybe you know the answer
you seem to know more than me

I know a few things about Germany.
Other than that, you fill in the blanks.

 

[firetown]

we don't, but China is sitting on the side lines and observes the whole spectacle with lots of attention

The same way that a nation's economy got kicked off, can potentially be the exact same way that removal of the catalyst leaves it helpless.

 

[bicicleur 2]

I'm watching the news on BBC: the Russian government is "ready" to start "talks" with the Ukrainians in Minsk. I imagine the proposals: the Donbass and some other Russian-speaking territory (and obviously Crimea) would definitely become part of Russia...and the rest of the Ukrainian territory would be ruled by a "Vichy regime"...

that's how it will end anyway, 'talks' or not
and before entering Ukraine, he also made sure Bello Russia is a 'loyal ally'

the iron curtain is back
I hope Europe has learned some lessons now, but I'm pessimistic

 

[Palermo Trapani]

Northerner: The bottom line is in 2014, during Obama-Biden administration, Crimea was invaded by Putin. Nothing from the EU, Obama-Biden, nothing. Oil hit $100 dollars a barrel back then, just as it did the other day. No change in NATO allies moving away from dependency on Russian Oil and Gas. Business as usual. Trump is Trump, he praises all leaders because that is just how he does business. But it was Trump that put sanctions on Companies doing business with Putin to build NORD2 (which btw just went back on with Biden). And it was him stating that The EU (Germany in particular was the focus of his anger) was too dependent on Russian Oil and Gas and he pushed for the EU to start buying more From the USA. You think maybe that could have changed Putin's behavior. I think in the 1980's as part of détente between Reagan and Gorbachev, Europe was getting about 6% of its energy supplies from Russia. You know the number today is 40-50%. If after 2014, and during the Trump era if that number started say just dropping to 20%, you think Putin would have had Europe dependent on Russia for energy. And you chose to respond to the comment about Trump (you are consistent). You will not respond to my post #148 because it, despite what Trump does about saying someone is a tough leader, etc, etc (which he does for Erdogan, Kim, Xi, Putin), on his policies regarding EU and Europe's dependency on Russian Oil and Gas is one of the major reasons you have Putin meddling in European politics. He was 100% correct. I guess since Boris Johnson of the UK came out and basically confirmed what Trump said back at that NATO meeting when he ripped Merkel for being overly dependent on Putin and Russian Oil and Gas is not something you want to address. Is the UK now on some list of yours because they said to hell with the EU?

Regardless of your dislike of Trump, UK PM Boris Johnson is the first European leader that has clearly and unequivocally said NATO allied Countries and EU countries dependence on Putin and Russian Oil and Gas has to end. How hard is for you to realize this. What the EU countries did (NATO allies as well) allowed was for Putin to Weaponize Europe's Dependency on Russia for Oil and Gas and he thus was able to drive a wedge between different NATO countries. Even today as I write this, Germany is not willing to put on the sanctions that for example the UK is putting on. And from what I have gathered, it seems Italy sided with Germany and did not vote for the fullest extent of sanctions on Russia.

And lastly, I suspect these large deals Putin signed with China to supply them with more energy (lot of it Coal) was strategically done to mitigate any loss of revenues if the European Countries moved away from Russia once they attacked Ukraine (this was in the works for a while). Thus, China in my view is backing Russia on this invasion (gave them the go ahead and they will not vote to condemn China in the UN) because once Russia takes obtains their objectives and there is no serious move to cut Europe's dependency on Russian energy, thus no long term economic impact on Putin internally, China will likely move on Taiwan.

 

[firetown]

I predict that Russia will go down. Russia is a made-up nation anyways since the murder of the family of the Czar.

 

[bicicleur 2]

I know a few things about Germany.
Other than that, you fill in the blanks.

fwiw they stopped Nord Stream 2
now it's up to the other countries to shut down Nord Stream 1

not that it will stop Putin to export that gas to China instead

 

[Palermo Trapani]

we don't, but China is sitting on the side lines and observes the whole spectacle with lots of attention

I have come to the same conclusion you did. Just follow the money and China's geopolitical objectives. Putin was in China for the winter Olympics. I doubt he was there to watch the Olympics. China gave its approval in my view for Russia to invade Ukraine. On 20 February, China and Russia signed a deal for Russia to supply China with lots, lots, lots of Coal. Russia's share of the Asia-Pacific Energy supply market is now 12%, up from 8% just like 5 years ago. So even if Russia looses some market share of the Energy Market in Europe, China at least has provided a source of revenue to mitigate losses that might occur from Europe. Furthermore, China did not condemn Russia's invasion because they want to see the consequences from the EU, USA, etc. Will the EU cut off trade and supplies of Russian Oil and Gas? Hmmm, I hope so by not confident. China will see there were no long term consequences economically to Russia from invading Ukraine, then China will likely move on Taiwan.

 

[bicicleur 2]

I predict that Russia will go down. Russia is a made-up nation anyways since the murder of the family of the Czar.

Russia or the Soviet Union ?
I don't want Russia to go down, I want Putin and the likes to go down.
He probably will, but it will take decades.

 

[firetown]

Russia is and has been a useless nation for 100 years. It needs to be disarmed. Putin needs to be imprisoned or executed.
Every country has the government it deserves.

 

[firetown]

Russia or the Soviet Union ?
I don't want Russia to go down, I want Putin and the likes to go down.
He probably will, but it will take decades.

She was strangled to death and her 3 sisters, her brother and her parents were murdered as well.

 

[Northener]

fwiw they stopped Nord Stream 2
now it's up to the other countries to shut down Nord Stream 1

not that it will stop Putin to export that gas to China instead

84% of gas from Russia goes to Europe. It's 60% of the income of Russia.

I wonder if China could fill the gap when Europe is disconnected. Within two months winter is gone....

Nevertheless this is a longe time effect not an immediately one.

I just heard that Baerbock minister of foreign affair of Germany has mentioned that the SWIFT ban is still an option in the next round.

 

[firetown]

84% of gas from Russia goes to Europe. . It't's 60% of the income of Russia.

I wonder if China could fill the gap when Europe is disconnected. Within two months winter is gone....

Nevertheless this is a longe time effect not an immediately on.

I just heard that Baerbock minister of foreign affair of Germany has mentioned that the SWIFT ban is still an option in the next round.

What is Germany's track record on international affairs?

 

[Angela]

The European countries have learned nothing, and I mean all of them, with the possible exception of Great Britain, which has traditionally held itself "apart".

Ukraine is gone.

What's truly unforgivable is that NATO sent them arms, leading the Ukraine no doubt to believe it would come to its aid if Russia invaded. The reality is that despite all the rhetoric, no "hard" response was ever even considered.

Let's hope he stops with Ukraine, because I have my doubts Europe or the U.S. would give a hard response even if he took the Baltic States. They've been considered expendable before, why should things be any different now?

I can't stop thinking about the innocent, suffering Ukrainians. Kudos also to their courageous leader; at least he wasn't on the first plane out like the "leaders" of Afghanistan.

 

[Northener]

Northerner: The bottom line is in 2014, during Obama-Biden administration, Crimea was invaded by Putin. Nothing from the EU, Obama-Biden, nothing. Oil hit $100 dollars a barrel back then, just as it did the other day. No change in NATO allies moving away from dependency on Russian Oil and Gas. Business as usual. Trump is Trump, he praises all leaders because that is just how he does business. But it was Trump that put sanctions on Companies doing business with Putin to build NORD2 (which btw just went back on with Biden). And it was him stating that The EU (Germany in particular was the focus of his anger) was too dependent on Russian Oil and Gas and he pushed for the EU to start buying more From the USA. You think maybe that could have changed Putin's behavior. I think in the 1980's as part of détente between Reagan and Gorbachev, Europe was getting about 6% of its energy supplies from Russia. You know the number today is 40-50%. If after 2014, and during the Trump era if that number started say just dropping to 20%, you think Putin would have had Europe dependent on Russia for energy. And you chose to respond to the comment about Trump (you are consistent). You will not respond to my post #148 because it, despite what Trump does about saying someone is a tough leader, etc, etc (which he does for Erdogan, Kim, Xi, Putin), on his policies regarding EU and Europe's dependency on Russian Oil and Gas is one of the major reasons you have Putin meddling in European politics. He was 100% correct. I guess since Boris Johnson of the UK came out and basically confirmed what Trump said back at that NATO meeting when he ripped Merkel for being overly dependent on Putin and Russian Oil and Gas is not something you want to address. Is the UK now on some list of yours because they said to hell with the EU?

Regardless of your dislike of Trump, UK PM Boris Johnson is the first European leader that has clearly and unequivocally said NATO allied Countries and EU countries dependence on Putin and Russian Oil and Gas has to end. How hard is for you to realize this. What the EU countries did (NATO allies as well) allowed was for Putin to Weaponize Europe's Dependency on Russia for Oil and Gas and he thus was able to drive a wedge between different NATO countries. Even today as I write this, Germany is not willing to put on the sanctions that for example the UK is putting on. And from what I have gathered, it seems Italy sided with Germany and did not vote for the fullest extent of sanctions on Russia.

And lastly, I suspect these large deals Putin signed with China to supply them with more energy (lot of it Coal) was strategically done to mitigate any loss of revenues if the European Countries moved away from Russia once they attacked Ukraine (this was in the works for a while). Thus, China in my view is backing Russia on this invasion (gave them the go ahead and they will not vote to condemn China in the UN) because once Russia takes obtains their objectives and there is no serious move to cut Europe's dependency on Russian energy, thus no long term economic impact on Putin internally, China will likely move on Taiwan.

I have suggested it more often you, and may be is that a tendency in the US in general, are not able to think in historic context or categories. It's like I discuss with JR Ewing as long as it's in barrels and $ but when it comes to a story besides it's disconnection....

Europeans life in history and may be the Russians and especially Putin even more, even in the trauma of history. That's his revanche, that's it's unification of Rus in the cradle of Rus: Kiev. And it's old fashioned power...Almost berserker behavior as the old Viking colony brought it to Russia. May be exaggerated but still....

Yes I do dislike Trump he is a narcist personality so he can't act like a grown up person, so the egocentric, grabbing child rules. But ok it's not about personal dislike we must judge him as a player in the political scene. And that's unheard of he still wants to tackle Biden and it seems like regardless the outcome. That is a TOTAL lack or responsible behavior. The US is as a real risk of a war with another nuclear power. And the absolute ruler of Russia is probably in a Berserker modus. This no time and place for an ex president to continue in the ego modus.... Do you realize what is at stake? At times of high risk such a villain atmosphere is potential devastating, potential undermining to the force of the US!

And for the sanctions I agree with you Germany must set steps further they already cancelled Nordstream 2, they see SWIFT ban as a real option. But may be it takes a bit time they pay the biggest price when it comes to Russia. That's the reality. But the faster the better.

How hard is for you to realize this

I know that's true but we have no overnight solutions. And also this sanction how high they are don't stop Putin in the next months. That is a reality too....

And then do you know how hard it is when a bloody dirty war like in Grozny and Syria will go on, when the berserker goes on and on and on and on, then we (as NATO) all 'sit and watch' as blood, sweat and tears of the Ukranians go by?

 

[Northener]

I have come to the same conclusion you did. Just follow the money and China's geopolitical objectives.

I saw this after writing my response....This is not about money my friend, why setting up an army of 180.000 to capture a big country with 44 million people against their will....so not easy to control. A potential very very high cost full operation. With, to stay in your language, a own GDP that is as high as the Benelux (29 mil inhabitants, Russia 144). Money wise a va banque decision.

 

[bigsnake49]

fwiw they stopped Nord Stream 2
now it's up to the other countries to shut down Nord Stream 1

not that it will stop Putin to export that gas to China instead

Yeah but China is a tough negotiator and Russia will get pennies on the dollar.

 

[Palermo Trapani]

Northerner: If your suggestion the US does not think with "Historic context" in mind is a dig at me, I do think in historical context. I am in my 50's and seen since the fall of the Soviet-Union this move for Globalism and Free Trade as being sacrosanct. I have been opposed to this philosophy. You can't sit here and tell me you want to stop Putin when the decisions that the EU made and NATO allies to become dependent on Russia for Oil and Gas is part of the problem. That is what is financing Putin's military machine. Period. So until NATO allies and the EU finally says 1) No more dependency on Russian Oil and Gas, which would mean yes doing exactly what Trump recommended at that NATO summit when he scolded Merkel's energy policies; that is contract with the USA to sell LNG to Europe along with finding supplies from Qatar, Australia, UAE, etc. 2) Sanction the Russian banking system, 3) Take that out of the SWIFT system, and 4) Sanction Putin directly.

Until the EU and Europe is willing to do all of the above, this is all a shi--t show that was largely the result of economic decisions that the EU made going back the last 25 years.

I do understand that it has always been an sort of unwritten rule that a ex President does not criticize a sitting one in a foreign policy crisis. Trump you are correct does not follow historical US Presidential norms. I agree with you 100%. I don't care for Trump personally anymore than I care for any other Politician from NYC, like the Senator Schumer from there, or the former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who I share obviously a close ancestral affinity (Cuomo being a descendent of Italian immigrants from Campania and Sicily) or the former Mayor of NYC "DeBlasio" who actually had a Father of German ancestry and Mother of Italian ancestry but after his parents Divorce, he chose to take his Mother's Family name (maybe some political angel to appeal to the large numbers of Americans of Italian descent in NYC).

But on his policies, Confronting China on their trade practices, currency manipulation and stealing US Industrial and Research Technology, he was 100% correct. His pointing out, in public, NATO and the EU's overreliance on Putin and Russia for its Oil and Gas supplies, 100% correct. His criticizing all these trade deals that the USA Made with countries that do not practice Free and Fair trade, not talking about European countries here, China again, which resulted in shipping mfg. jobs to China, 100% correct. All one had to see was when COVID-19 was hit, the USA did not have the supplies here in the USA to deal with that problem. Will the USA and other countries learn? so that the next time some virus comes out of China, we all collectively, USA and Europe are not dependent on China to provide Medical supplies to deal with a pandemic.

And no I hope there is no War in Europe, despite my criticisms towards many of its leaders and EU, the continent is still the one that gave the world what we call "Western Civilization" which I am obviously tied to on all levels. But if God willing this thing in Ukraine is resolved without anymore escalation, then things should not go back to the way they were before. The EU, as UK PM Boris Johnson stated in the meeting in the House of Commons there the other day (I watched it on Youtube, always love how the UK behave in their meetings with the here, here, responses and how the MP's stand up when the PM talks so he knows they have something to say, wonder example of public debate and discourse), the EU and Europe have to get away from Russia as its major source of Oil and Gas.

And yes, mistakes were made, that is human, what is done is done, but a few years from now if nothing has changed on this energy dependency with Russia, then shame on the EU and shame on the USA for not making the case, with proper diplomacy and decorum (not Trumpian style) for saying this is a direct security threat to NATO and thus the USA. It has to be addressed.