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U.S. & Israel Attack Iran

Looking at the systematic elimination of Iran’s leaders and military assets (the extent of which is unverified though), one begins to wonder:

- what will the Kurds do?
- what will Turkey as the most powerful neighbour do?
- will the Gulf countries and/or US try to occupy the other shore of the Strait of Hormuz?
- will this become the next Libya?
- how far is a civil war?
- will the world be better off?
- will Israel be better off?
- will this last longer than the 12-day bombing last Summer (I know the talk about “4-5 weeks or more or less”)
- how long until the first Iranian terror attack?

Feel free to share your thoughts.
 
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A big gamble in which the odds are against Trump, but he was losing in the polls anyway. For Netanyahu on the other hand, it's an ideal way to profile himself in his own country.
 
Looking at the systematic elimination of Iran’s leaders and military assets (the extent of which is unverified though), one begins to wonder:

- what will the Kurds do?
- what will Turkey as the most powerful neighbour do?
- will the Gulf countries and/or US try to occupy the other shore of the Strait of Hormuz?
- will this become the next Libya?
- how far is a domestic war?
- will the world be better off?
- will Israel be better off?
- will this last longer than the 12-day bombing last Summer (I know the talk about “4-5 weeks or more or less”)
- how long until the first Iranian terror attack?

Feel free to share your thoughts.
I think these questions are premature. Iran still has many options left to strike back and the regime has a large base of people (a minority, but still a lot of people) who depend on it and benefit from it. Their leaders however are replacable.
 
I believe one of the main objectives of this war is to weaken BRICS. Venezuela (candidate for BRICS) and Iran, an actual member. I also think it takes aim at eliminating two of China's main oil trading partners, which were both Venezuela and Iran. All the rethoric about humanitarian concerns are merely window dressing. I'm always cynical about such claims when it comes to any given conflict, or actors. That being said, I would like to see the government of Iran replaced with a sensible one facilitated by the people.
 
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I think these questions are premature. Iran still has many options left to strike back and the regime has a large base of people (a minority, but still a lot of people) who depend on it and benefit from it. Their leaders however are replacable.

The size of the country cannot definitely be ignored. At 87M, it’s on par with Germany and Turkey. On an area that’s vast and mountainous - almost 3x larger than Afghanistan.

Experienced leadership is not replaceable immediately. I don’t think the decision-making has been in too many hands in the last decades, even though there’s talk of there being a large supply of clerics and whatnot.

The country is already suffering economically. So to continue on a more positive note:

- will Iran pull back from supporting rebels elsewhere to gain cessation of attacks and lifting of sanctions?
- is the US able to destroy all nuclear facilities?
 
I believe one of the main objectives of this war is to weaken BRICS. Venezuela (candidate for BRICS) and Iran, an actual member. I also think it takes aim at eliminating two of China's main oil trading partners, which were both Venezuela and Iran. All the rethoric about humanitarian concerns are merely window dressing. I'm always cynical about such claims when it comes to any given conflict, or actors. That being said, I would like to see the government of Iran replaced with a sensible one facilitated by the people.

I agree but this is only partially true. It is a war that has been long pushed by the Jewish lobby. While it may be true that Israeli and US interests align, it is fundamentally about Israeli hegemony in the Middle East and the same was true for all the other "US" wars in the region.

Iran is a multiethnic country where ethnic Iranians make up about half of the population. The possibility of Iran fracturing along ethnic lines is great, even that of a civil war if the current regime doesn't survive. That is also the Gulf states' fear, even as they favor the removal of a major rival in the region.

I believe that the theocratic regime would have been removed a long time ago if it wasn't for the constant meddling from the outside and the sanctions that have plunged the country into a grave situation. Iran has a large population of highly educated young people who are no longer willing to tolerate an anachronistic regime. They are not Arabs, they are not divided into tribes and they take great pride in their culture and history. But the more their nation is threatened from the US, Israel and the collective West, the more they're going to rally behind the regime, no matter how much they hate it. Netanyahu is a hated person in Israel, yet most Israelis supported his genocidal campaign against Gaza just as they support his war agaist Iran now.

The biggest threat for the Mullah regime is its own credibility in the eyes of the Iranian public. Whether the Ayatollah sacrificied himself for the people, dying a martyr, or not, fact is that a good part of the political and military establishment has been eliminated with a surprising ease. Of course, the Iranians were once again tricked by the US into false negotiations, so they let their guard down, an unwise move at any time. People may question the capabilities of Iran's intelligence and military. Other than that, the future of Iran will and should be decided by its own people, not by Israel, the US or a small majority of hyperconsumerist Iranian monarchists in exile who celebrate the bombing of their country by foreign powers in which more than 100 school girls were killed. I bet those people are viewed with contempt even by their US and Zionist supporters.

If the regime falls, if there's a civil war, this means millions of refugees again. Are we going to expect another wave of mass migrations in Europe? For what? For Israel? People are already openly discussing who's disproportionally engaged in advocating mass migration. You cannot be pro-Israel and anti-migration at the same time. Those two are directly related. I like how Western elites are referred to as the Epstein class recently. As simplistic as it may sound, I think it is quite appropriate.
 
I agree but this is only partially true. It is a war that has been long pushed by the Jewish lobby. While it may be true that Israeli and US interests align, it is fundamentally about Israeli hegemony in the Middle East and the same was true for all the other "US" wars in the region.

Iran is a multiethnic country where ethnic Iranians make up about half of the population. The possibility of Iran fracturing along ethnic lines is great, even that of a civil war if the current regime doesn't survive. That is also the Gulf states' fear, even as they favor the removal of a major rival in the region.

I believe that the theocratic regime would have been removed a long time ago if it wasn't for the constant meddling from the outside and the sanctions that have plunged the country into a grave situation. Iran has a large population of highly educated young people who are no longer willing to tolerate an anachronistic regime. They are not Arabs, they are not divided into tribes and they take great pride in their culture and history. But the more their nation is threatened from the US, Israel and the collective West, the more they're going to rally behind the regime, no matter how much they hate it. Netanyahu is a hated person in Israel, yet most Israelis supported his genocidal campaign against Gaza just as they support his war agaist Iran now.

The biggest threat for the Mullah regime is its own credibility in the eyes of the Iranian public. Whether the Ayatollah sacrificied himself for the people, dying a martyr, or not, fact is that a good part of the political and military establishment has been eliminated with a surprising ease. Of course, the Iranians were once again tricked by the US into false negotiations, so they let their guard down, an unwise move at any time. People may question the capabilities of Iran's intelligence and military. Other than that, the future of Iran will and should be decided by its own people, not by Israel, the US or a small majority of hyperconsumerist Iranian monarchists in exile who celebrate the bombing of their country by foreign powers in which more than 100 school girls were killed. I bet those people are viewed with contempt even by their US and Zionist supporters.

If the regime falls, if there's a civil war, this means millions of refugees again. Are we going to expect another wave of mass migrations in Europe? For what? For Israel? People are already openly discussing who's disproportionally engaged in advocating mass migration. You cannot be pro-Israel and anti-migration at the same time. Those two are directly related. I like how Western elites are referred to as the Epstein class recently. As simplistic as it may sound, I think it is quite appropriate.
I know of and appreciate the difference between Iranian peoples and other middle easterners. I find it fascinating, their genetics, history, and culture (much of which is shared with Europeans; CHG in Steppe, Iran_N in southern Europeans, PIE enrichment, language and culture). I hope that perhaps if the region is stable enough, in the aftermath, I could visit it one day on vacation. Unfortunately, for the time being, I cannot even safely travel to Egypt. We were planning a trip to Egypt in 2027, but that's not happening now.
 
file_00000000edcc71fda26a5cfa28612379.png


The USA seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz would be the equivalent of Rome conquering Egypt, seizing the grain and dominating the sea lanes.
 
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The USA seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz would be the equivalent of Rome conquering Egypt, seizing the grain and dominating the sea lanes.
Right now gas prices are over 60 cents more per gallon than they were from the last time I filled up my tank.

You can see the markets reacting, but I am less concerned about this because I have a relatively large time horizon, and it is an opportunity to buy units at a cheaper rate.

I am far more concerned about retaliation from Iran-backed terrorists, and lone wolf actors.

Perhaps even a direct retaliation from Iran:

 
Right now gas prices are over 60 cents more per gallon than they were from the last time I filled up my tank.

You can see the markets reacting, but I am less concerned about this because I have a relatively large time horizon, and it is an opportunity to buy units at a cheaper rate.

I am far more concerned about retaliation from Iran-backed terrorists, and lone wolf actors.

Perhaps even a direct retaliation from Iran:

The White House said the attack was actually not credible.
 
I wonder how they would do that. In the mean time, the winner is .. Putin.
I read a report that the new Supreme Leader was badly hurt in a recent strike, where he went into a coma, and had his leg amputated. It is only a matter of time until he meets his ultimate demise. I think the US & allies will eventually control the strait, which will likely mean boots on the ground a protracted war. However, this is domestically unpopular, and will likely cost the GOP politically, particularly within Trump's anti-Neoconservative base. People still remember the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan. As well as the refugee crisis that comes with destabilizing the region. Even if it doesn't reach the shores of the USA, there's people here concerned with refugees coming to the EU/West.

 
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I’m back! Place looks nice, quite a few cool studies I gotta catch up on.

Anyway it’s gonna take a lot to sell me on this Iranian conflict…besides the mass inflation and stocks taking a huge plunge, we’ve angered quite a few dangerous groups of individuals. Biggest fear at this point that comes from this outside pain at the pump is the possibility of another terror attack, might not reach 9/11 levels but killing the ayatollah was a big, unnecessary move. At this point we are wasting resources and worse, lives to “get the bad guys, they have nukes they’ll never use”. It’s ironic how we’re creating a more dangerous situation for ourselves by provoking the tiger.

And no, I don’t like the double messages from Trump saying “Iran’s military is diminished to nothing” while sending thousands of troops over there. If Iran has nothing left, why are they needed??

As long as we keep making dumb threats to Iran they’ll just keep hanging onto the straight of Hormuz. I don’t see the straight cutting loose anytime soon
 
Philippines has 45 DAYS LEFT before its oil supply runs out😤. Situations like this are way scarier than Iran having nukes they’d never use (and if they do when the planets align they wouldn’t make it far).

Trump now understands that attacking Iran was a stupid move, but now it's to late. He seems to be very desperate now.
What he should have done was to attack the ghost fleet worldwide, as he had done with the ghost tanker vessels coming from Venezuela.
 
Trump now understands that attacking Iran was a stupid move, but now it's to late. He seems to be very desperate now.
What he should have done was to attack the ghost fleet worldwide, as he had done with the ghost tanker vessels coming from Venezuela.
Exactly.
Trump lied when he said the war is pretty much over. That was over 2 weeks ago, and here we are still fighting. He lied when he said they had productive talks (Iran spat out his 15 point plan). Both of those lies raised stocks a bit and I bet he was expecting them to go back up after his 10 day pause announcement, but the economy knows he’s full of crap so BOOM we got hit big time today.
Maybe it’s good we took another hit in the markets so he wakes up and realizes he better do something quick and that is take the L and get out of Iran so the straight reopens. Just my take
 
Trump threatens to bomb Iran's power, water infrastructure


From Trump:

“Great progress has been made,” Trump said on Truth Social, adding that if a deal is not reached shortly and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, the United States will “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)”
 
Trump threatens to bomb Iran's power, water infrastructure


From Trump:

“Great progress has been made,” Trump said on Truth Social, adding that if a deal is not reached shortly and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, the United States will “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)”
Absolute garbage from the aura farmer in chief. Let’s deprive innocent Iranians of water and utilities bc he wants to play war. His best bet IMO would be take the L so Hormuz reopens, and clean up the mess. But now he wants to create an even bigger mess, maybe it would reopen the straight but then we have a bigger “mess” to clean.
He’s just fueling their motivation to destroy even more oil supplies, and possibly initiate another terror attack. The world hates him even more bc almost every economy is spiraling to hell all bc of this useless unnecessary war against the mythical nuclear bombs Netenyahu says they’re building…
 
He needs to come up with a better project to distract us from the Epstein files! Maybe suggest more useless tariffs or something. This current approach ain’t workin out
 
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