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Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

Obviously all sane people want peace.

However Putin is now persona non grata in the West.

It's too late now for diplomacy.

Both sides cannot back down without losing face.

Putin is just being depicted that way by the Western media, and this can be taken back or at least rectified within a couple of months. Even more so, if the media would look more carefully at the events shortly before the invasion, what the Selenski did in the Ukraine and how the Biden administration was involved in this military build up and pressure on Russia, as well as the Ukrainian opposition. Of course, this won't happen now, it might never happen, but its possible.
And if the Ukrainians don't take negotiations seriously, their country will be completely ruined for decades and they won't be any more free or happier than they could be if making peace.

For diplomacy its not too late, unless one side has won all and won't accept any compromise. In this case, there are at least weeks to come in which this is not the case. And the Ukrainians better negotiate now than in 2 weeks, because Kherson has fallen. The Russians forced the Ukrainian forces to leave the civilians out of Mariupol, finally, the storm of the city will start soon, I guess within a week it will fall, then its Kharkiv. This will probably need 2 weeks, then the big pincer will crush the Ukrainian main forces, the whole Donbas front will collapse. There will thousands and thousands of Ukrainian dead and taken prisoners.
The only reason they are holding right now is that they have used the buildings of these major cities and the civilian inhabitants to slow the Russians down. But once these major plugs are gone, they will be helpless in the open, this will be a big run for the Dneper for what remains of the Western UAF.

I think Selenski understood by now that no one wants a nuclear war for his invented heroic tale or for taking away Crimea from the Russians by force. He will step down from his arrogant position, one by one, the closer the pincer movement comes, the closer the collapse of the Western front, the more he will give in or has to be replaced. That's what will happen, that's what should happen, as soon as possible. Or does anyone want the Russians to steamroll over all Russian cities like they had to in the East, in cities like Mariupol which will just a bunch of rubble soon? Or that Russia crumbles with its nuclear missiles and becomes an unpredictable mess? Or the worst case scenario, that we head for a nuclear third World War?

What are the options? It was known from the start. All this useless, one sided hate-propaganda only makes peace more difficult to achieve. The only innocent people are the soldiers and civilians which being thrown into this mess, from both sides, but definitely not the Selenski regime, not the Putin regime, not the Biden regime. They are all guilty for going for that escalation unwilling to compromise. Totally unnecessary and predictable, like predicted by all serious analysts in the last year: Don't go for confrontation, try to negotiate, give Russia options, don't push for the NATO membership, arms race in Donbas, a purged Ukraine unwilling to compromise with Russia. Don't do that, stop it, it will end in a catastrophy.
But Biden, unlike Trump, just proceeded in pushing Ukraine into a war.
 
Yes, every reasonable analyst is a "Putin bot" or what else?

Nice compilation of propaganda nonsense in the USA which tried to smear Tucker Carlson:

He really stands up in this mess. People like him are the only reason to consider the USA not completely lost at this point.
 
Ukrainian internet portal suggests a plebiscite on unification of Ukraine with Poland:

https://ua-reporter.com/uk/news/ukr...ya-v-naybilshu-i-naybagatshu-derzhavu-yevropy - original article

https://1-ua--reporter-com.translat..._tr_enc=1&_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl - English translation

^^^ Screenshot - https://i.imgur.com/z4pCfFQ.png

z4pCfFQ.png


Polish translation of this article was also published on a Polish website Salon24.pl - and people commented:

"This article was posted on the Ukrainian website, it was written by Ukrainians. Please believe us that many Ukrainians would agree to join Poland without hesitation. The article is clearly anti-Russian. The author even states that Ukraine has never been part of the 'Russian world'."

And:

"Journalists of the Ukrainian website encourage the dissemination of the idea on social networks, which they think will make 'a referendum in a year or two'. The text of the proposal can be found at: ua-reporter.com."
 
^^^
If Ukraine is not allowed to join the EU and NATO, then uniting with Poland is indeed their only option to get into the EU and NATO.


In such case they will "automatically" become part of NATO and the EU.
 
Ukraine war - European leaders risk train ride to meet Zelensky:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60757157

=====

This Russian priest said that - "after this war, it will be possible to drive from Vladivostok to Kaliningrad only through Russian territory":


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjV2czzxBfI&t=679s - priest's warmongering sermon starts at 11 minutes 19 seconds of the video

rGn9yUb.png


^^^
Do you know what it means? It means that he is warmongering and suggesting that Russia should invade the Suwalki Gap (Polish area):


 
^^^
Apart from the Suwalki Gap, Putin's Priest wants to "liberate" also:

- Moldavia
- Kazakhstan
- Georgia
- Ukraine
- "and what is going to happen to the Baltic states, you can guess yourself" - he adds at the end of his sermon.

Finally, he asks Russian people to pray "for victory against the Dark Fascist Horde". :thinking:
 
Ukraine war - European leaders risk train ride to meet Zelensky:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60757157

=====

This Russian priest said that - "after this war, it will be possible to drive from Vladivostok to Kaliningrad only through Russian territory":


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjV2czzxBfI&t=679s - priest's warmongering sermon starts at 11 minutes 19 seconds of the video

rGn9yUb.png


^^^
Do you know what it means? It means that he is warmongering and suggesting that Russia should invade the Suwalki Gap (Polish area):




Great. We are in 2022 and pseudo-religious confidence tricksters are STILL calling the shots.
 
^^^
If Ukraine is not allowed to join the EU and NATO, then uniting with Poland is indeed their only option to get into the EU and NATO.


In such case they will "automatically" become part of NATO and the EU.


Great idea but Putin, Dugin and the Rasputin clone mentioned above will not accept this.

The EU has not got the guts to go for this imaginative option and who knows what the USA would think.
 
Not a mistake, Ukrainians are defending NATO despite not being part of it.

Are you serious about this? They are the American cannon fodder, to wear Russia down, that's the ugly truth. There was no and is absolutely no threat to any NATO member. The only threat might come about if they interfere even more into the Russian affairs, because we don't know how it can escalate from this point onwards. That's like poking someone constantly in the eye and saying "he is a bully, he will beat me, he is a bully, he will beat me..."
That's what the Ukrainian Selenski regime with the US Biden administration backup did, and I just hope that the Eastern European alliance partners are not as stupid to repeat that mistake, are trigger-happy and want a World War III. And if acting like that, while still poking the bear, and then saying, if it ticks out, "I told you all along, he will beat me", is just either naive or hypocritical, or an outright lie. Its kind of a stupid self-fulfilling prophecy and the main reason we got into this war in Europe.

A neutral Ukraine with security guarantees, and they have to let Crimea go, Donbas at least gets his autonomy and normalised political conditions in the country, with an allowed and protected opposition. This could be a viable compromise, and its being debated right now. If these warmongers in Kiev would have debated these issues from 2014-2021, this war would have never happened. No dead, no destruction, no economic and human catastrophy, just a peaceful diplomatic solution which makes perfect sense. But no, Biden said "stay firm and aggressive, we back you up ruin Russia together", and that's what happened. For what? Now the only way out is a Third World War for a complete "Ukrainian victory". I hope they finally come to senses, because day by day people die and their life get destroyed because of this idiocy.
And this nonsense rhetoric of Ukraine defending NATO - serioiusly? Poland will be as safe or safer with Ukraine being a neutral buffer state. Because then both sides can be happy, and the Ukrainians can, internally, live largely like they want anyway. That was not the main point of this war and Putins policy. He did what he did to prevent a weaponised Ukraine in his flank and to end this stalemate since 2014.
Just think about it, even if you don't like Russia, for so many reasons, and even less Putin: What's a logical way out of this, without even more dying and the world becoming a battlefield? Its a political compromise, basically the same as proposed since 2014, fairly moderate demands by Russia.
 
"There was no and is absolutely no threat to any NATO member."

^^^
Have you watched the "Suwalki Gap" video which I posted?
 
A neutral Ukraine with security guarantees (...) This could be a viable compromise

Sorry but this already happened and didn't work out (why should they make the same mistake twice?):

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Ukraine-Nuclear-Weapons

"1994 Trilateral Statement

The Massandra Accords set the stage for the ultimately successful trilateral talks. As the United States mediated between Russia and Ukraine, the three countries signed the Trilateral Statement on January 14, 1994. Ukraine committed to full disarmament, including strategic weapons, in exchange for economic support and security assurances from the United States and Russia. Ukraine agreed to transfer its nuclear warheads to Russia and accepted U.S. assistance in dismantling missiles, bombers, and nuclear infrastructure. Ukraine?s warheads would be dismantled in Russia, and Ukraine would receive compensation for the commercial value of the highly enriched uranium. Ukraine ratified START on February 3, 1994, repealing its earlier preconditions, but it would not accede to the NPT without further security assurances.


1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances


To solidify security commitments to Ukraine, the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on December 5, 1994. A political agreement in accordance with the principles of the Helsinki Accords, the memorandum included security assurances against the threat or use of force against Ukraine?s territory or political independence. The countries promised to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine. Parallel memorandums were signed for Belarus and Kazakhstan as well. In response, Ukraine officially acceded to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state on December 5, 1994. That move met the final condition for ratification of START, and on the same day, the five START states-parties exchanged instruments of ratification, bringing the treaty into force."

^^^
That was stupid. They should have kept their nukes.

BTW in Poland "Konfederacja" party - which has 42% support among men aged 18-39 - supports arming the Polish Army with nukes.

"How men & women in age group 18-39 want to vote" (April 2021):

Among men "Konfederacja" has a whooping 42% support:

Gtt0roB.png


https://oko.press/pis-sie-odbija-holownia-pozre-budke-sondaz-oko-press/

^^^
Neither of two "mainstream" parties - Law & Justice (PiS) and KO - is popular in age group 18-39. Mostly 40+ people vote for them.
 
"There was no and is absolutely no threat to any NATO member."

^^^
Have you watched the "Suwalki Gap" video which I posted?

Ukraine is a large state, armed up by the USA and indoctrinated to fight, if necessary, if their leader says so, to the "bitter end". Russia did start this war, when all diplomatic options failed, the Selenski regime just didn't properly respond any more and was on war course anyway.

Now what has this to do with a threat to NATO members? Let's talk straight, you might not like Putin, to say the least, but whatever he did, there was a rational to it, a pressing issue, which can explain his actions. It was always, even if he overreacted, not completely out of proportions.
He won't attack the NATO states, especially not in the current situation, or start a nuclear war on his own, he just won't do it. That's all nonsense propaganda. The only reason he might shoot on Poland or the Balticum, now or in the next years, is if there attacks coming from these territories on Russian forces.

That means: I don't exclude that Russia will eventually attack NATO states, especially Poland, but if they do, its because Poland started it. Because Putin and Russia, even if he would have "the urge" to do it, won't do it, because he knows they can't swallow that portion. Its completely out of question. Ukraine alone might prove to be too hard to swallow, its a huge, 40 million, industrialised and armed up country, its not like a walk in the park, like the US invasion of Iraq.
Do you really think Putin went completely cuckoo? He is risk taking, he can get brutal, if he thinks its necessary, but he is always weigh issues in his own rationale. Any attack on the Eastern European nations, other than out of desperation, is completely out of question.

At the same time the US mob wants witch hunts and silence all critical voices, amazing what happened to the freedom of expression and how the pressure is mounting in the USA, its just awful:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ot3zGDPe8s

They want to imprison all people which still speak out the truth and look at things from a more objective perspective? Awful, just awful where the US mainstream is heading with its warmongering.
 
Any attack on the Eastern European nations, other than out of desperation, is completely out of question.

It sounds just like what Lavrov has lately said, quote - "we are not planning to attack other countries, we didn't attack Ukraine either":

https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/10...ck-other-countries-and-did-not-attack-ukraine

^^^ You didn't see the attack on Ukraine, because it's not there:


Or is the definition of "Eastern Europe" now narrowed down from "between Germany and Russia" to "between Germany and Ukraine"?

=====

Plese check also my post #1218.
 
BTW in Poland "Konfederacja" party - which has 42% support among men aged 18-39 - supports arming the Polish Army with nukes.

As if this would be something new. Poles being not as much re-educated like Germans, sure, they dream of a larger Poland with nukes, why not. They might also dream about taking back the Western Ukraine and creating a Greater Poland again. Basically, that's similar to what Russia wants, just from the other side.
Don't get me wrong, I do get why they want it. If I would be a Pole, I would say yes, sure, we want nukes and Ukraine allied with us or even part of a "Greater Poland".

But:
- Does the world want this?
- Do the Ukrainians want it, especially on the longer run?
- Are such dreams worth a World War III?

Three times no.

I totally get the grudge on Russia and Polish dreams, I'm not mad about it, I just want to put it into context and stay realistic. And I certainly don't want a NATO war against Russia to start because Poles get trigger-happy. If Poles tick out, they should do it on their own. If they stay defensive and get attacked, then its different, but they should be careful not to interfere in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict too much, that's just too dangerous and won't really help. Because being nuked won't help anybody.
 
^^^ Or maybe they just dream of a secure Poland within current borders, not necessarily a larger Poland.


Konfederacja aren't really "Russia-haters", actually they were sometimes accused of "pro-Russian sympathies" in the past.

Since you mentioned "re-education" - I think Russians have not been re-educated at all.

Stalin is responsible for almost as many deaths as Hitler, but they still see him as a hero.
 
But:
- Does the world want this?
- Do the Ukrainians want it, especially on the longer run?
- Are such dreams worth a World War III?

Three times no.

This article was written by Ukrainians not by Poles:

https://1-ua--reporter-com.translat..._tr_enc=1&_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl

Many Poles are actually sceptical because they think it would impoverish us and only Ukrainians would benefit (from economic POV at least).

=====

I remember reading similar articles about a possible Polish-Belarusian union, written by Anti-Lukashenko opposition:

https://www.rferl.org/a/understanding-the-belarusian-flags/30792159.html

597C1646-C33C-44B1-AA76-484D9F4871ED_w1300_r0.png


This is the correct flag of Belarus:

43489D11-3B23-482B-99C9-B31CD144F4FD_w1300_r0.png
 
^^^ Belarus opposition leader strongly supports Ukraine:


 
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